Well it has finally come and gone...The long awaited test for Clinton/Obama/Edwards/Others and their partners Romney/Giuliani/Huckabee/McCain/Paul in Iowa has come and gone with yours truly watching (quite amused for the most part) from our very own command center in Capitol Hill (complete with 42 and 50 inch behemoth HD TV's).
Immediate thoughts are that I was not at all surprised about Huckabee's running away with the GOP side, as they kept mentioning over and over about the power of evangelical influence in the caucus that year. That being said, it was surprising to see Fred Thompson garner so much support when he had mentioned as recently as yesterday that he wanted to help support his friend McCain if he could not secure a good finish (consequently he had beaten McCain based on the last numbers I saw).
Obama's clear victory was honestly a surprise though.
From the early returns I got the sense that Edwards may have finally gotten that traction he's needed, but eventually did lose ground, though a second place finish for him in Iowa is damaging it may not be the end of the road.
The real clear loser in this was Hillary Clinton...
Not really sure where this puts her in the grand scheme of things, as she obviously hasn't shown as much ability as Obama in the fundraising, nor the "charm" aspect, so honestly I'm ready to write her off at this point as a serious candidate...
She needed to win Iowa to prove their was something there I feel... She didn't do it... Her speech was the most telling part of her entire failure when she was preaching progress and a change in direction while surrounding herself with Washington insiders that everyone would recognize (including that unemployed husband of hers, whats his name?).
Anyway...
My picks for New Hampshire for the moment are Obama and (wait for it....) a close finish between Ron Paul and Mitt Romney!
You laugh, but just wait...
4 comments:
Huckabee faces a major problem in New Hampshire. His win is a frightening reminder that Americans in Iowa dont learn.
Edwards gained the support he needed. He will likely win South Carolina as well. Obama- A bit shocked but he hails from that region. Home field advantage paid off. I agree, I think he could take NH as well.
Guiliani seems to be the front runner in NH so it Mitt loses, he could grant alot of wishes and drop out.
Hillary- Slim shot for NH, but she put all of her eggs in Iowa
I believe you will see everyone shocked when Edwards wins NH with his Populist message that should do very well with the people of that state. Hillary I think will fall again, but still may do better then Obama.
Rudy wrote off Iowa, and Iowans wrote him off as well. I am a bit shocked the Thompson did this well, but it will definitely give traction to Paul who should win NH, though of course none of the major outlets are talking about it. Just remember there is a HUGE libertarian populace in NH and Paul has been our Presidential Candidate at one time.
Edwards doing this well in Iowa really helps his candidacy since he will be the Democrat who wins the South.
Richard Brooks of the NYT is picking McCain in NH, and I like the reasoning. First, Huckabee humiliated Romney, hamstringing him. Second, Huckabee can't continue this, his campaign machine is made from rubber bands, crazy glue, manilla folders, and paperclips, and N.H. voters aren't going to buy his message. Third, Guiliani turned himself into a one-trick pony, and no one likes his trick all that much. That leaves, by elimination, Senator McCain. I like the logic of it.
For the Dems, there are still too many good choices. Obama's the favorite, and I'm betting he pulls it off in N.H. But, Edwards gets a bump. Hillary is toast.
But...I think that Super Tuesday might be more telling. I get the feeling that N.H. isn't going to matter that much. People are sick of some whitey northern state having so much say.
DC&H- Great explanation on the RNC portion. The only thing holding Romney together is that its his neck of the woods. But im sure those pesky Mass Liberals are putting up one hell of a good smeer campaign. One can only hope
I think Edwards getting as much of the vote as he got could secure a victory. He will likely place 1 or 2 in NH and like 2004, completly dominiate South Carolina.
I think it always boils down to Super Tuesday, or at least thats when everyone drops out.
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